Rapid evolution predicts demographic recovery after extreme drought

Populations that are declining as a result of climate change may need to evolve to persist. Although evolutionary rescue has been demonstrated in theory and in the laboratory, its relevance to natural populations facing climate change remains unknown. Here we link rapid evolution and population dynamics in scarlet monkeyflower, <i>Mimulus cardinalis</i>, during exceptional drought. We leverage whole-genome sequencing across 55 populations to identify climate-associated loci. Simultaneously we track demography and allele frequency change throughout the drought. We establish range-wide population decline during the drought, geographically variable rapid evolution, and variable population recovery that is predictable by standing genetic variation in, and rapid evolution at, climate-associated loci. These findings demonstrate the possibility of evolutionary rescue in the wild, showing that genetic variation at adaptive, but not neutral, loci predicts population recovery.

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Publication Details

Journal
Science
Published
2026-03-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adu0995
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Genetic diversity and population structure
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
30.93
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article

Rapid evolution predicts demographic recovery after extreme drought

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1 citations
Science
Genetic diversity and population structure
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Rapid evolution predicts demographic recovery after extreme drought

José M. Lázaro-Guevara, Seema N. Sheth, Mojtaba Jahani, Haley A. Branch, Dylan R. Moxley, Amy L. Angert, Marco Todesco, Julia Anstett, Rebecca Jordan, Daniel N. Anstett, Kaichi Huang, Loren H. Rieseberg
article en
1 citations

Abstract

Populations that are declining as a result of climate change may need to evolve to persist. Although evolutionary rescue has been demonstrated in theory and in the laboratory, its relevance to natural populations facing climate change remains unknown. Here we link rapid evolution and population dynamics in scarlet monkeyflower, <i>Mimulus cardinalis</i>, during exceptional drought. We leverage whole-genome sequencing across 55 populations to identify climate-associated loci. Simultaneously we track demography and allele frequency change throughout the drought. We establish range-wide population decline during the drought, geographically variable rapid evolution, and variable population recovery that is predictable by standing genetic variation in, and rapid evolution at, climate-associated loci. These findings demonstrate the possibility of evolutionary rescue in the wild, showing that genetic variation at adaptive, but not neutral, loci predicts population recovery.

ScienceVol. 391(6790)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU), North Carolina State University (US), University of British Columbia (CA), Sun Yat-sen University (CN), John Brown University (US), Cornell University (US), McGill University Health Centre (CA), Yale University (US), Genome British Columbia (CA), Canada's Michael Smith Genome Sciences Centre (CA), University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus (CA), McGill University (CA), Michigan State University (US)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 0%
Genetic diversity and population structure
30.93
DOISourceOpenAlex
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