Road to Olympics: Modelling performance standards of those athletes classified for Paris 2024 in 1500 m, 5000 m, 10,000 m and marathon

Abstract Elite athlete cohorts are complex and difficult to physiologically characterize using traditional approaches. Large-scale mathematical modelling of the speed-duration relationship offers a practical solution to describe and integrate physiological performance determinants across elite endurance athletes. Therefore, this study aims to describe the performance indices (i.e., critical speed [CS], work over critical speed [D′], maximal aerobic speed [MAS)] and the endurance index [EI]), of men and women athletes classified for Paris 2024 in 1500 m, 5000 m, 10,000 m, and the marathon. The start lists of Paris 2024 were retrieved from the World Athletics webpage. A total of 211 men and 234 women athletes were classified. Their historical best performances from 1500 m to Marathon were noted from their profiles. The linear CS and Peronnet models were used to analyse their speed-duration relationship and retrieve different performance indices (i.e., CS, D′, MAS and EI). The 5000 m and 10,000 m CS were over 1500 m and marathon (Men: P < 0.001; Women: P < 0.001). 1500 m athletes were characterized by a superior D′ in both sexes ( P < 0.001), being of similar size among the rest of the events. Marathon athletes were characterized by the lowest MAS in both sexes ( P < 0.001), remaining similar among the rest of the events. The EI was proportional to the distance of each event, being the EI of marathon the lowest (Men:4.5%; Women:4.1%). These performance indices serve as a benchmark for elite performance in middle- and long-distance events, emphasizing the specific demands of each race distance.