A techno-economic analysis and cost optimization pathway for solar thermal Desiccant-IEC cooling systems in tropical climates using Monte Carlo simulation

Prohibitively high capital cost of solar thermal desiccant cooling systems for small scale applications remains a barrier to adaptation in high humidity regions. This study provides a comprehensive Monte-Carlo based framework for solar thermal desiccant systems with indirect evaporative cooling (IEC) for residential cooling in tropical climates, focusing on systems with 36,000‒48,000 BTU cooling capacity. The objective of the study is to model cost uncertainty and identify precise cost reduction targets for key components i.e., solar thermal collectors, desiccant materials, IEC units, and phase change material (PCM), are assessed through component cost analysis and sensitivity assessment. The simulation revealed a mean system cost of $2,528.59, significantly lower than the typical capital cost of $5,000‒$10,000 for vapor compression refrigeration systems (VCRs). The analysis demonstrates that targeted cost reductions of 50–75% for major components can make the system cost-competitive with conventional VCR. Our findings suggest that with further advancements, solar thermal desiccant systems can offer a cost-effective, energy-efficient alternative to traditional cooling solutions in tropical regions.