Risk assessment of the offshore integrated Photovoltaic-Power Storage-Hydrogen project in the context of “Dual Carbon”

• A risk assessment index system for the photovoltaic hydrogen storage offshore photovoltaic integrated project (PES-H2) has been constructed. • Take China’s first integrated photovoltaic, energy storage and hydrogen energy comprehensive utilization project as an example. • The combination of TFN and HFLTS, along with the introduction of CRITIC, enhances the accuracy of risk decision-making. • Key risks: Unreasonable site selection, Market changes, and Wind and solar resources. • The risk tolerance limit is + 33.7%. The integrated Offshore Photovoltaic-Power Storage-Hydrogen (PES-H2) project represents a cutting-edge solution for achieving “dual carbon” goals. However, its complexity introduces multifaceted and ill-defined risks that challenge conventional assessment methods. This study proposes a novel hybrid fuzzy multi-criteria framework, TFN-HFLTS-CRITIC, to address these challenges. The framework innovatively combines the Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Term Set (HFLTS) to capture expert cognitive hesitancy, Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFN) for quantification, and the CRITIC method for objective weighting based on data correlation and contrast. This framework was applied to the first commercial-scale Jiangsu PES-H2 project in China, identifying Unreasonable site selection, Market changes and Wind and solar resources as the most critical risks. The results show that the overall risk level of the PES-H2 project is relatively low, with a risk tolerance limit of + 33.7%. Comparative studies demonstrate the superiority of the proposed framework in handling fuzziness and generating reliable decisions. His research provides both a theoretically sound methodology and practical insights for risk governance in future marine renewable energy integration projects.