Children’s transport mode choice for active school trips in Switzerland: An exploratory approach using national census data

Children’s mobility behavior plays a critical role in shaping mobility habits and public health outcomes. Despite growing interest among communes, cities, and schools, little is known about key predictors of children’s choices of transport mode for school trips in Switzerland. This study addresses this gap by applying an explorative statistical modeling approach to data from the Swiss Mobility and Transport Microcensus (MTMC). We use a sequential modeling strategy. We first establish a logistic benchmark and then, second, use a random forest to assess non-linear patterns. Our results indicate that distance emerges as the most important predictor across all models. However, the probability of walking or cycling falls by about 50 percentage points once the home–school distance exceeds 1–1.5 km. Furthermore, older children and those from larger households are more likely to travel actively. In contrast, children in French- and Italian-speaking regions have lower rates of active commuting than their German-speaking peers. On the other hand, the built environment and weather conditions play a minor role. The findings provide municipalities and schools with evidence on distance thresholds, socio-demographic determinants, and regional disparities, enabling targeted interventions to reduce car dependency and foster active school travel—insights that are also valuable for researchers studying children’s mobility behavior beyond the Swiss context. • This study analyses determinants of children’s transport mode choice for active school trips in Switzerland. • Active school travel in Switzerland is primarily shaped by distance, age, and family structure. • The probability of walking or cycling declines once the home–school distance exceeds 1–1.5 km.