Hydroclimatic Variability and Topographic Mediation of Wetland Resilience in a Semi-Arid Mountain of the Waterberg Mountain Complex

Wetlands are vital ecosystems that regulate water, store carbon and support biodiversity, but they are highly vulnerable to climate variability and human pressures. In semi-arid South Africa, montane wetlands remain understudied despite their ecological and socioeconomic importance. The study analyzed 1996–2023 climate variability and vegetation response across the Waterberg Mountain Complex (WMC) using station temperature/precipitation, Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), 6-month wet-season Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and site-level Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for 11 wetlands. Maximum temperatures increased at all stations, led by Warmbath (0.009 °C/month). No statistically significant changes in minimum temperature were detected. Precipitation trajectories diverged, Mokopane exhibited a statistically significant wetting trend whereas Lephalale and Marken experienced progressive drying. ENSO-driven droughts (2002/2003, 2015/2016 and 2019/2020) intensified hydroclimatic stress and shortened wetland hydroperiods. NDVI trends revealed strong coupling with rainfall variability, with high-altitude wetlands demonstrating greater resilience, while lowland systems declined in greenness. These findings highlight topography as a determinant of wetland vulnerability, positioning upland wetlands as potential climate refugia. Site-specific adaptation and conservation strategies are essential to safeguard ecosystem services and biodiversity, contributing to global sustainability goals (SDGs 6, 13 and 15).