Spatiotemporal analysis and prediction of land use and land cover dynamics in katsina metropolis Nigeria

Rapid city expansion in many secondary towns throughout sub-Saharan Africa is exerting increasing strain on land resources, infrastructure, and environmental sustainability, frequently in the absence of good enough spatial planning. This study examined spatiotemporal analysis and prediction of land use and land cover dynamics in Katsina Metropolis Nigeria. Field observations and multi-temporal Landsat imagery (ERTS-1, 1972; TM, 1987; ETM+, 2002; and Landsat 9 OLI, 2022) were analyzed through supervised image classification, GIS-based spatial analysis, and post-classification change detection. The CA–Markov model was validated through hindcasting, achieving high Kappa indices and overall accuracy. Noticeable increase (37.05%) in built-up area from 1972 (2.94%) to 2022 (39.99%), followed by a slightly increase in the cover of farmland (16.44%) was observed. Conversely, vegetation declined noticeably (57.78%), followed by rock outcrop (6.5%). Result showed that from 1972 to 2022, farmland gained 5.33% from other classes, largely from the vegetation class. However, the vegetated area lost 1.42%, and the rock outcrop class lost 1.70% annually to other classes. Among land use, results indicated that farmland (0.7914), rock outcrop (0.7003), and vegetation (0.8544) showed the highest stability between 1972 and 1987. From 1972 to 1987, farmland (0.7914), vegetation (0.8544), and rock outcrops (0.7003) exhibited the highest levels of stability, while built-up (0.0327) and bare surfaces (0.0458) were the most dynamic. From 1987 to 2002, farmland remained the most stable land use/cover, whereas bare surfaces recorded the lowest stability (0.0008). Between 2002 and 2022, built-up areas demonstrated the highest persistence (0.0141), while rock outcrops showed the lowest stability, with a transition probability of 0.5168. Prediction revealed that Katsina Metropolis will be almost covered by built-up land (82.78 km²) by the year 2072. Over five decades, this study maintained that Katsina Metropolis has transformed from a predominantly vegetated landscape into a rapidly urbanizing city, with built-up areas projected to dominate by 2072, threatening ecological sustainability.