The impact of US–China trade war on China’s centrality in the world trade network

Purpose To capture the long-run influence of U.S. tariff hikes during the trade war, we integrate tariff data from World Integrated Trade Solution with that of Fajgelbaum et al. (2024) from 2012 to 2023. Utilizing PageRank centrality, we estimate changes in China’s trade network resulting from U.S. tariff increases. Design/methodology/approach Social Network Analysis, OLS Regression, IV Findings We find that U.S. tariff increases caused a decline in China’s centrality overall: moderate tariff increases in 2012–2017 had significant negative effects, while in 2018–2023 the negative effects for larger hikes no longer showed statistical significance. Mechanism analysis shows that China diverted exports to third countries and increased indirect exports to the United States, strengthened trade links with third countries offset losses from reduced direct US–China trade. We also examine agricultural products and provide a 2025 export forecast. Heterogeneity analysis shows that tariff hikes during the trade war mainly weakened China’s centrality in intermediate goods, and that moderate tariff increase in 2012–2017 significantly lowered China’s centrality in high-tech products. Practical implications We provide valuable insights into the potential restructuring of the world trade network under a new round of trade tensions in 2025. Originality/value First, we integrate network theory with trade policy to assess the long-run impacts of US–China trade war on China’s position in the world trade network. Second, we highlight the role of third countries in absorbing China’s diverted trade and facilitating indirect exports to the United States. Third, we evaluate how tariff hikes affected their network centrality in intermediate and high-tech products.