Global hunger risk projections and the factors shaping future vulnerabilities

Hunger remains one of the most persistent barriers to human development, with progress uneven across regions and increasingly exposed to economic instability, climate pressure and structural vulnerabilities. This study investigates the key drivers of cross-country variation in hunger severity and develops forward looking projections to support evidence based global policy planning. Using a comprehensive global panel dataset covering 146 countries over the period, 1992 to 2024 the analysis identifies the socio-economic and environmental factors more strongly associated with changes in hunger outcomes over time. The results reveal that hunger severity is not shaped by a single pathway but by a combination of development related conditions, demographic pressures, and external shocks with substantial heterogeneity across country groups. Building on the estimated relationships the study generates projections from 2025 to 2029, highlighting regions where hunger risks may remain elevated or worsened in the absence of targeted interventions. The findings underscore that substantial progress in hunger reduction requires integrated methods that extend beyond food supply alone including strengthening resilience, improving social protection and supporting inverse growth by combining long run global evidence with near turn projections. This study contributes to the literature on hunger dynamics and offers timely insights for international organisations and national policymakers working towards the achievement of food security and related Sustainable Development Goals. • Global panel evidence on hunger drivers across 146 countries (1992–2024). • Hunger severity shaped by economic, environmental and demographic pressures. • Panel ordered probit models identify key determinants of hunger risk. • Forward projections (2025–2029) map future hotspots of elevated hunger risk. • Findings support SDG 2 policy design through resilience and social protection.