A Hybrid Model for Copper Futures Price Forecasting Utilizing Complexity-Aware Variational Mode Decomposition and Reconstruction and Multi-Behavior-Triggered Interaction Modeling
Accurate forecasting of copper futures prices is crucial for risk management and investment decisions. However, existing approaches primarily rely on historical prices and incorporate behavioral signals without a unified modeling framework. To address this limitation, we propose MBTI-Net (Multi-source Behavior-Triggered Interaction Network), a behavior-aware forecasting framework for heterogeneous copper market data. We first construct a compact behavioral factor from Baidu search indices via a multi-view projection strategy that preserves structural and predictive information. We then develop a complexity-aware reconstruction mechanism that aggregates intrinsic mode functions into multi-frequency components based on fuzzy entropy and energy. To accommodate distributional and volatility differences between behavioral and market variables, we introduce VB-ReVIN (Volatility- and Behavior-aware Reversible Instance Normalization). Building upon these representations, MBTI-Net models dynamic multi-source interactions triggered by behavioral intensity and market conditions, enabling adaptive cross-source information fusion. Experiments on LME and SHFE copper futures datasets demonstrate consistent improvements over state-of-the-art benchmarks, highlighting the importance of explicitly modeling behavior-driven dependencies in financial forecasting.
Authors
- Dezhi Liu
- Yan Li
Institutions
- Anhui University (CN)
- Anhui Sanlian University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Entropy
- Published
- 2026-03-12
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3390/e28030320
- Primary Topic
- Stock Market Forecasting Methods
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province