A Tripartite Evolutionary Game Analysis of the Low-Carbon Transition for Nearly Zero-Energy Office Buildings

Achieving the “Dual Carbon” goals requires accelerating the near-zero energy transition of office buildings. Existing research focuses on isolated economic or technical dimensions, neglecting the dynamic evolution of tripartite collaboration among the government, developers, and users, and lacking integrated quantification of key drivers like carbon reduction, energy savings, and comfort benefits. To address this, this study develops a tripartite evolutionary game model that incorporates technical parameters, simulated with data from a nearly zero-energy office building (NZEOB). Results show that the transition is stage-dependent, shifting from initial government drive to long-term market sustainment. The economic benefits from energy savings emerge as the core decision factor in current technology adoption, often exerting a stronger influence than carbon reduction benefits, while improvements in comfort can effectively accelerate market acceptance. Technology pathways need to align with developmental stages; low-cost technologies are advisable in the early phase to lower entry barriers, whereas medium to later stages should focus on technologies with high combined benefits and system integration. Policy instruments should be dynamically optimized, with an emphasis on strengthening penalty mechanisms to establish rules in the early stage, shifting toward performance-linked incentives in the mid-to-late stages, and emphasizing compensation mechanisms to build trust. This study offers a basis for multi-party collaboration and stage-adapted strategies.