Beyond Production: Institutional and Environmental Drivers of Food Security in East Asia

This study assesses the role of institutional quality, macroeconomic performance, and environmental pressures in shaping food security in East Asia. Using a PMG-ARDL panel model with data from China, Singapore, and Japan—three economies characterized by high institutional standards—the analysis covers the period 1996–2023. The findings highlight a strong and statistically significant long-term effect of institutional quality on food production, underlining the essential role of governance in reducing regulatory uncertainty, attracting agricultural investment, and enabling coherent policy frameworks. The CO2 emissions growth also exhibits a significant negative impact, underscoring that climate change poses a structural threat to food security. Control variables show that population growth and macroeconomic stability enhance food security, reflecting an ability to adapt to demand. In contrast, the effect of inflation is insignificant in the long term. In the short term, the analysis reveals heterogeneity in adjustment. The ECT is negative and significant for Singapore, indicating an effective return to long-term equilibrium. In contrast, it is insignificant for Japan and China, suggesting a lack of automatic convergence due to structural specificities in the short term. Overall, the study demonstrates that sustainable food security in advanced East Asian economies relies not only on productive capacity, but also on effective governance, macroeconomic stability, and the integration of climate considerations into long-term policy strategies.