Rethinking energy investment policies during economic downturns using an advanced hybrid decision-making model

Economic recessions restrict public and private energy investments by tightening budgets, increasing uncertainty, and intensifying the need for strategic resource allocation, yet the literature offers limited guidance on which criteria should be prioritized under such conditions. This study aims to develop a structured and data-driven approach to identify the most critical factors shaping energy investment decisions during economic downturns. To achieve this objective, an advanced hybrid fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model is proposed, integrating taxicab-based cluster analysis for expert weighting, Fermatean fuzzy sets for uncertainty representation, the SITDE method for objective criteria weighting, and the RAFSI approach for ranking historically significant periods. The findings indicate that technological breakthroughs and regulatory interventions are the most influential criteria in recessionary contexts, while the green investment perspective of the 2010s and the global supply chain disruptions of the 2020s represent the most critical periods for investment prioritization. These results provide actionable insights for policymakers by emphasizing the importance of technological innovation, regulatory stability, and long-term planning during economic distress, ultimately supporting more resilient and evidence-based energy investment strategies.