Potential Invasion Risk of Empoasca fabae in China Under CMIP6 Scenarios: Integrating Climatic Suitability and Host Plant Distribution

Empoasca fabae (Harris) is a destructive migratory pest threatening potato cultivation globally. As climate change may facilitate its invasion into China, the world’s largest potato producer, projecting its potential range is critical for early warning. To account for its migratory biology, this study utilized an optimized MaxEnt model tuned via ENMeval to approximate climatic suitability for potential establishment (year-round persistence) under current and future scenarios (CMIP6: BCC-CSM2-MR; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The main model achieved high accuracy (AUC = 0.912), identifying Precipitation Seasonality (Bio15) and Annual Precipitation (Bio12) as critical drivers. While current suitable habitats for permanent establishment are concentrated in East, Central, and Southwest China, future warming is projected to cause a sharp contraction (73.65–80.42%) and a northwestward centroid shift due to thermal stress. However, a sensitivity analysis excluding the winter temperature constraint (Bio6) revealed a critical spatiotemporal decoupling: while year-round establishment contracts, potential seasonal exposure during the growing season is projected to expand into higher latitudes. These findings provide a hierarchical scientific basis for targeting monitoring and quarantine measures against both permanent establishment and seasonal summer invasions in shifting high-exposure zones.