Explainable AI for Employee Retention in Green Human Resource Management: Integrating Prediction, Interpretation, and Policy Simulation

Retaining the green workforce, employees driving sustainability and environmental innovation, is essential for organizational resilience and long-term environmental goals. While prior Green HRM research has primarily relied on survey-based methodologies and theoretical frameworks to examine retention factors, these approaches lack predictive capability and fail to provide actionable, employee-specific insights. This study advances beyond descriptive and correlational analyses by employing explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to develop a transparent, data-driven framework for identifying attrition drivers and quantitatively evaluating retention strategies. Unlike existing studies that rely on self-reported perceptions, our approach leverages objective HR data and machine learning to predict individual-level attrition risk with calibrated probabilities. Leveraging the IBM HR Analytics dataset as a proxy for sustainability-focused roles, we construct an interpretable logistic regression model with strong predictive performance and isotonic regression calibration. Global and local interpretability techniques, including SHAP, LIME, and permutation importance, show that non-monetary factors, such as excessive overtime, frequent business travel, and limited promotion opportunities, have a greater impact on turnover risk than salary levels. These findings align with Green Human Management (Green HRM) principles, which emphasize work–life balance and employee well-being. Crucially, our policy simulation framework, absent from prior Green HRM studies, demonstrates that eliminating overtime could reduce predicted attrition probability by 17.35% for affected employees, potentially retaining 31 staff members, substantially outperforming modest salary adjustments. This work expands the value of predictive AI into HR analytics by consolidating HR analytics with Green HRM through a novel methodology that bridges the gap between prediction and actionable intervention. It represents the first systematic integration of XAI-based predictive modeling with counterfactual policy simulation in environmentally conscious sustainable organizations.