The Relationship Between the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Extensive Wildfire Area Burned in Contiguous United States Geographic Area Coordination Centers

Abstract We examine the relationship between the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extensive wildfire area burned from 1984 to 2022 in nine contiguous United States Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs). The La Niña and El Niño phases of ENSO significantly alter the chances of extensive area burned in several GACCs up to 12 months in advance, potentially rendering predictable future such occurrences of area burned. Autumn La Niña increases the chances of extensive area burned in the Southwest, Southern, and Rocky Mountain GACCs during the following winter and spring. This increased likelihood extends to the Great Basin and Northern California GACCs during the following summer. These increases are linked to a heightened chance of low precipitation during winter and spring wet seasons and high evaporative demand during the following spring and summer seasons associated with anomalous higher pressure over the southern United States. Conversely, autumn El Niño increases the likelihood of extensive area burned in the Eastern and Northern Rockies GACCs during the following spring. This is associated with an increased likelihood of low precipitation and high evaporative demand linked to anomalous high pressure over the northern United States. Additionally, autumn El Niño decreases the chances of extensive area burned in the Great Basin, Rocky Mountain, and Southern GACCs during the following spring and summer. This reduction is associated with a decreased likelihood of low precipitation and high evaporative demand during the intervening months associated with anomalous low pressure over the southern United States.