Urban Competitive Vulnerability in Tourist Cities: An Integrated Framework and Empirical Evidence from Spain

Urban competitiveness and vulnerability have traditionally been studied as analytically distinct dimensions, grounded in the assumption that competitive performance necessarily strengthens urban structures. However, empirical evidence from tourist cities reveals a paradox, as high levels of tourism competitiveness may coexist with cumulative processes of structural fragilisation. This article introduces urban competitive vulnerability—an urban system’s propensity to competitive erosion driven by internal fragility accumulation, even during high performance. Using panel data from six major Spanish tourist cities (Barcelona, Madrid, Valencia, Palma, Seville, and Málaga) over 2014–2024, we develop an integrated framework with four dimensions: tourism competitiveness, sectoral specialisation, territorial pressure, and governance capacity. We construct the Urban Competitive Vulnerability Index (CVI) and test four hypotheses using panel-data models with fixed effects and interaction terms. Results confirm significant positive relationships between tourism competitiveness and structural vulnerability (β = 0.540, p < 0.001). Sectoral specialisation increases vulnerability both directly (β = 0.504, p < 0.001) and indirectly through competitiveness (65.8% mediated effect). Tourist housing intensity significantly increases housing prices (β = 0.288, p < 0.001) and evictions (β = 0.125, p < 0.05). Cities with high prior vulnerability experienced more severe COVID-19 impacts (β = −3.688, p < 0.05) and slower recovery. While limited to Spanish cities, this study provides the first urban-specific framework for competitive vulnerability with direct implications for urban tourism planning and governance.