Spatial Interplay Between Digital–Real Integration and New Quality Productive Forces: Evidence from China

The deep integration of the digital and real economies is a critical force reshaping the global economic landscape. At the same time, new high-quality productive forces that are distinguished by their high level of efficiency, quality, and technology mark a new phase in productivity evolution. Understanding the spatial interplay between these two phenomena is crucial for coordinated development. This study empirically investigates their bidirectional relationship and spatial spillover effects. With panel data from 30 provinces in China (2011–2022), we use the Generalized Spatial Three-Stage Least Squares (GS3SLS) approach to estimate a spatial simultaneous equations model. The results reveal a significant bidirectional positive correlation, with the promotional effect of digital–real integration on new quality productive forces being slightly stronger. However, we also identify significantly negative spatial spillover effects between them. These findings underscore the necessity of strengthening their interactive development, fostering interregional cooperation, and optimizing source allocation to alleviate adverse spillovers. This study systematically examines their spatial dynamics and proposes policy recommendations to foster the coordinated advancement of both digital–real integration and New Quality Productive Forces.