Graduate employability in the Western Balkans: a career ecosystem perspective on labour market inequalities

Purpose This study investigates inequality of opportunity (IOp) in university-to-work transitions among higher education graduates in the Western Balkan Six: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. Framed within the Sustainable Career Ecosystem) and IOp frameworks, it focuses on how demographic and socio-economic circumstances—such as gender, family socio-economic status, and rural origin—influence the time-to-first-job and early career outcomes. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on nationally representative data from the Regional Cooperation Council Public Opinion Survey (2019–2021), we apply a two-stage quantitative approach. First, we estimate lower-bound IOp in time-to-first-job using circumstance-based decomposition. Second, we assess how early disadvantage predicts employment outcomes such as job satisfaction, job security, and perceived job opportunities. Findings The analysis confirms that structural circumstances significantly affect university-to-work-transition across the six Western Balkans. Graduates from urban and higher-socio-economic status (SES) backgrounds, as well as male graduates, transition into employment more quickly and report better job quality. Pandemic-related disruptions further amplified inequalities, especially for women and rural youth. National disparities are evident, with Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania showing more pronounced delays, while Serbia and Montenegro present relatively stronger private sector absorption. Research limitations/implications The study is limited by its reliance on cross-sectional data and its focus on the period up to 2021. Future research could explore longitudinal analyses of employment outcomes, the role of informal networks, and post-pandemic labour market trends. Practical implications Findings support the need for differentiated policy responses. For governments, this includes addressing rural–urban disparities, informal recruitment, and brain drain through inclusive labour market reforms. For higher education institutions, the emphasis should be on enhancing work-based learning, strengthening employer linkages, and tailoring career services to institutional and disciplinary contexts. Originality/value This study contributes new comparative evidence on graduate employability and IOp in a strategically important yet under-researched European Union (EU) neighbourhood. It offers regionally grounded insights for improving graduate transitions and designing equitable career ecosystems aligned with European integration goals.