A Study on Asymmetric Interdependence and Geopolitical Reshaping in the Global Semiconductor Trade Network

The global semiconductor division of labor, which has evolved based on cost efficiency over the past four decades, is undergoing fundamental structural restructuring due to the recent U.S.-China technological rivalry and the trend toward supply chain securitization. From the perspective of the Global Value Chain (GVC), this study categorizes semiconductor products into raw materials, manufacturing equipment, and finished components. Using UN Comtrade trade data from 2007 to 2023, this study empirically identifies structural changes in the global semiconductor supply chain and asymmetric interdependence among nations.<br/> Utilizing the Gini coefficient, Hubness Measurement Index (HM Index), and Chord Diagram visualization, the key findings are as follows: First, the semiconductor trade space exhibits an extreme oligopolistic structure with a Gini coefficient exceeding 0.9, regardless of the process stage. Second, distinct structural heterogeneities were identified across value chain segments. While the finished components and materials sectors have deepened their Asia-centric regional division and mutual dependence, the manufacturing equipment sector has entrenched an exclusive monopoly centered on the U.S., Japan, and the Netherlands. Third, HM Index analysis reveals that following the intensification of the U.S.-China tech war, China's trade status has shown a distinct declin in the upstream sector. While China maintains its position as the largest demand and supply hub for general-purpose materials and finished products, quantitative analysis proves it faces technological “chokepoints” due to restrictions on advanced equipment imports. Fourth, manufacturing powerhouses such as South Korea and Taiwan are exposed to a “dual dependency” structure, relying on the West for equipment and materials while depending on China for demand markets.<br/> Based on these findings, this study suggests that supply chain strategies must shift from an efficiency-centric approach to one focused on resilience. In particular, for the South Korean semiconductor industry, the study proposes a strategy of “partial compliance”—aligning with the U.S.-led technology ecosystem while managing the Chinese market—and emphasizes the necessity of a supply chain hub strategy through the internalization of the upstream sector.