Expert elicitation on agricultural enhanced weathering reveals carbon dioxide removal potential and uncertainties in loss pathways
Abstract Enhanced weathering in agriculture is a potential gigatonne-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) pathway, but its potential remains difficult to constrain. We used a formal expert elicitation process to estimate CDR potential and efficiency, uncertainties, and key data needs for six feedstocks. Expert opinion of global potential varied by feedstock, with estimates averaging 0.2-0.7 Gt CO2e/yr, but with a wide range (from a source to greater than 5 Gt CO2e/yr removal). When focusing on the American Midwest (pH 5.5-6), carbon dioxide removal efficiency, meaning the fraction of potential ultimately realized, ranged from 27-39%. Key uncertainties included feedstock availability, calcite saturation, and deep soil/freshwater emission pathways. There is a need for empirical data in key stages, with potential to leverage liming data where appropriate. Overall, there appears to be strong potential CDR at broad scales. However, continued research is necessary to build confidence when quantifying that potential and actual removals.
Authors
- Sara Vicca (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9812-5837)
- Tom Reershemius (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3512-6693)
- Louis A. Derry (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7062-7333)
- Bonnie G. Waring (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8457-5164)
- Yoshiki Kanzaki (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1400-1736)
- Rebecca B. Neumann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3464-9046)
- Salvatore Calabrese (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9997-9778)
- John A. Higgins (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4893-4561)
- Brian J. Buma (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2402-7737)
- Tyler Kukla (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3413-0925)
- Christiana Dietzen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3939-9472)
- Ian Malcom Power (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2102-9315)
- Whendee L. Silver (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0372-8745)
- Emily E. Oldfield (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6181-1267)
- S. Zhang
- Christopher R. Pearce (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4382-2341)
- Benjamin Z. Houlton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1414-0261)
- Alexandra Klemme (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6877-4964)
- Tim Jesper Suhrhoff (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7934-7159)
- Doria R. Gordon (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6398-2345)
- Maya Almaraz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0556-633X)
- Kate Maher
- Noah J. Planavsky
- M. Granger Morgan
Institutions
- University of Copenhagen (DK)
- Environmental Defense Fund (US)
- Planetary Science Institute (US)
- Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
- University of Bremen (DE)
- National Oceanography Centre (GB)
- Princeton University (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- Cornell University (US)
- Yale Cancer Center (US)
- Yale University (US)
- University of Florida (US)
- Province of Antwerp (BE)
- Carbon180 (US)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Trent University (CA)
- Carnegie Mellon University (US)
- Newcastle University (GB)
- Texas A&M University (US)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Stanford University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Published
- 2026-03-12
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03375-5
- Primary Topic
- CO2 Sequestration and Geologic Interactions
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung