Conservation—Oriented Analysis of Apocynum venetum’s Distribution in Response to Climate Change Based on MaxEnt Model

In recent years, global climate change, combined with increased human activities, has led to habitat degradation and range shifts in rare medicinal plants, potentially affecting the quality of medicinal herbs. In this study, we assessed how key environmental variables shape the potential distribution of <i>Apocynum venetum</i> L. based on 281 wild occurrence records and nine environmental variables using the MaxEnt model. The results revealed that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, solar radiation in June, and elevation are the most significant factors affecting the distribution of <i>A. venetum</i>, with optimal values ranging from -10 to 5 °C, 21,000 to 23,000 kJ m^-2 day^-1, and 200 to 1500 m, respectively. Ecological niche modeling indicated that highly suitable habitats are primarily located in Xinjiang, Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia. However, future projections under climate change suggest an expansion of these suitable areas, shifting towards higher latitudes in the northwestern regions and high-altitude mountains. These findings provide a scientific basis for guiding the production and sustainable utilization of <i>A. venetum</i> resources.