Projected Health and Economic Impacts of Achieving the Recommended Dairy Intake in Japan: A Simulation Study of Increased Milk Consumption for Stroke Prevention

<b>Background/Objectives:</b> Milk consumption is inversely associated with stroke risk. However, the average dairy consumption in Japan is below recommended guidelines. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate potential health and economic impacts of increased milk intake to achieve the recommended daily dairy intake for stroke prevention. <b>Methods:</b> A Markov model stratified by sex and age group simulated the effects of achieving the recommended dairy intake-by increasing milk consumption to 180 g/day-on stroke incidence, stroke-related deaths, and national healthcare expenditures among Japanese adults aged 30-79 years over 10 years. Two scenarios were defined; an immediate increase (Scenario 1) and a constant annual growth rate (Scenario 2) in milk intake, whereas the average dairy product consumption in 2023 was maintained in the base-case scenario. <b>Results:</b> Compared with the base-case scenario, increasing milk consumption to 180 g/day was projected to reduce stroke incidence and stroke-related deaths by 7.0% in Scenario 1 and by 3.2% in Scenario 2. National healthcare expenditures for stroke were decreased by 5.1% in Scenario 1 and 2.2% in Scenario 2. <b>Conclusions:</b> Achieving the recommended dairy intake may contribute to reductions in healthcare costs by preventing stroke in Japan.