All‐Season Analysis of Extratropical and Arctic Cyclones Over the Northern Hemisphere Oceans During 1940–2024

Abstract Extratropical and Arctic cyclones regulate mid‐to‐high‐latitude climate through the transport of heat, moisture, and momentum; however, their long‐term behavior during spring and autumn seasons remains poorly understood. Using an 85‐year (1940–2024) cyclone climatology derived from ERA5 reanalysis, we identified substantial seasonal and basin‐specific shifts in Northern Hemisphere marine cyclone activity. Most notably, cyclone occurrence and intensity have significantly changed over the central Arctic Ocean, with winter storms becoming fewer but markedly deeper, and summer storms more numerous. Arctic cyclones in spring, previously under‐investigated, have intensified (−0.31 hPa decade −1 ) and exhibit lengthening lifespans (+0.02 days decade −1 ) and trajectories (+29.44 km decade −1 ). In the North Atlantic, cyclone paths have lengthened in winter, genesis has risen (+0.73 decade −1 ) in spring, and storm lifespan has lengthened (+0.03 days decade −1 ) in autumn. In the North Pacific, tracks also have lengthened in winter, while autumn storms have become larger (+10.37 km decade −1 ), longer lived (+0.03 days decade −1 ), and farther traveled (+30.35 km decade −1 ). These observed cyclone changes are closely tied to the coupled responses from surface to upper‐tropospheric levels. Pronounced sea ice loss coincides with enhanced lower‐tropospheric baroclinicity (increased Eady growth rate) and a weaker upper‐tropospheric potential vorticity gradient. Together, these adjustments favor stronger, deeper cyclones and facilitate their meridional propagation. Our results demonstrate that long‐term climate change is reshaping Northern Hemisphere cyclone characteristics far beyond traditionally emphasized seasons. These findings highlight an urgent need for seasonal climate forecasts and long‐term projections to give spring and autumn cyclones equal consideration alongside winter and summer extremes.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Published
2026-03-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044894
Primary Topic
Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
Type
article
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article

All‐Season Analysis of Extratropical and Arctic Cyclones Over the Northern Hemisphere Oceans During 1940–2024

Zhibo Li, Deliang Chen, Hui‐Wen Lai, Céline Heuzé et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
article

All‐Season Analysis of Extratropical and Arctic Cyclones Over the Northern Hemisphere Oceans During 1940–2024

Zhibo Li, Deliang Chen, Hui‐Wen Lai, Céline Heuzé, Jia‐Ning Song, Alex Crawford
article en

Abstract

Abstract Extratropical and Arctic cyclones regulate mid‐to‐high‐latitude climate through the transport of heat, moisture, and momentum; however, their long‐term behavior during spring and autumn seasons remains poorly understood. Using an 85‐year (1940–2024) cyclone climatology derived from ERA5 reanalysis, we identified substantial seasonal and basin‐specific shifts in Northern Hemisphere marine cyclone activity. Most notably, cyclone occurrence and intensity have significantly changed over the central Arctic Ocean, with winter storms becoming fewer but markedly deeper, and summer storms more numerous. Arctic cyclones in spring, previously under‐investigated, have intensified (−0.31 hPa decade −1 ) and exhibit lengthening lifespans (+0.02 days decade −1 ) and trajectories (+29.44 km decade −1 ). In the North Atlantic, cyclone paths have lengthened in winter, genesis has risen (+0.73 decade −1 ) in spring, and storm lifespan has lengthened (+0.03 days decade −1 ) in autumn. In the North Pacific, tracks also have lengthened in winter, while autumn storms have become larger (+10.37 km decade −1 ), longer lived (+0.03 days decade −1 ), and farther traveled (+30.35 km decade −1 ). These observed cyclone changes are closely tied to the coupled responses from surface to upper‐tropospheric levels. Pronounced sea ice loss coincides with enhanced lower‐tropospheric baroclinicity (increased Eady growth rate) and a weaker upper‐tropospheric potential vorticity gradient. Together, these adjustments favor stronger, deeper cyclones and facilitate their meridional propagation. Our results demonstrate that long‐term climate change is reshaping Northern Hemisphere cyclone characteristics far beyond traditionally emphasized seasons. These findings highlight an urgent need for seasonal climate forecasts and long‐term projections to give spring and autumn cyclones equal consideration alongside winter and summer extremes.

Journal of Geophysical Research AtmospheresVol. 131(6)
China Meteorological Administration (CN), University of Manitoba (CA), University of Gothenburg (SE), Tsinghua University (CN)
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 46%
Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
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