How Changes in Transfer Prices Affect the Healthy Utilization of Farmland: Effect Transition and Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity

Following the transfer of farmland, new agricultural entities exhibit clearer profit-oriented goals and heightened sensitivity to changes in profitability. Changes in farmland transfer prices significantly affect producers’ crop selection, input choices, technology adoption, farming methods, and intensity. This study establishes a motivation–behavior–outcome analytical framework by integrating producer behavior theory with the mechanism of farmland health formation, suggesting that rising transfer prices may prompt producers to exhibit five types of positive or negative behaviors. The SBM-DEA model is employed to measure the grain green total factor productivity of farmland across 102 counties in China’s Henan Province from 2017 to 2022, reflecting the healthy utilization of farmland. Results from the two-way fixed-effects and threshold effect models reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship, indicating initially positive and later negative impacts of increasing transfer prices on farmland health utilization. GTWR model findings highlight that economic disparities and the pace of price increases dictate the intensity of producers’ positive and negative motivations, while the economic capacity for absorbing shocks and the natural endowment capacity for absorbing shocks influence the likelihood and magnitude of these effects. Government regulation should, therefore, focus on regulating producer interests.