Amplitude uncertainties everywhere all at once

Ultra-fast, precise, and controlled amplitude surrogates are essential for future LHC event generation. First, we investigate the noise reduction and biases of network ensembles and outline a new method to learn well-calibrated systematic uncertainties for them. We also establish evidential regression as a sampling-free method for uncertainty quantification. In a second part, we tackle localized disturbances for amplitude regression and demonstrate that learned uncertainties from Bayesian networks, ensembles, and evidential regression all identify numerical noise or gaps in the training data.

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Publication Details

Journal
SciPost Physics
Published
2026-03-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.21468/scipostphys.20.3.083
Primary Topic
Particle physics theoretical and experimental studies
Type
article
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article

Amplitude uncertainties everywhere all at once

Ramon Winterhalder, Nina Elmer, Henning Bahl, Tilman Plehn
SciPost Physics
Particle physics theoretical and experimental studies
article

Amplitude uncertainties everywhere all at once

Ramon Winterhalder, Nina Elmer, Henning Bahl, Tilman Plehn
article en

Abstract

Ultra-fast, precise, and controlled amplitude surrogates are essential for future LHC event generation. First, we investigate the noise reduction and biases of network ensembles and outline a new method to learn well-calibrated systematic uncertainties for them. We also establish evidential regression as a sampling-free method for uncertainty quantification. In a second part, we tackle localized disturbances for amplitude regression and demonstrate that learned uncertainties from Bayesian networks, ensembles, and evidential regression all identify numerical noise or gaps in the training data.

SciPost PhysicsVol. 20(3)
University of Milan (IT), Heidelberg University (DE), Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Milano (IT)
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Openalex Percentile: Top 25%
Particle physics theoretical and experimental studies
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Amplitude uncertainties everywhere all at once — Ramon Winterhalder, Nina Elmer, et al. · SciPost Physics (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS