Power Reconstruction and Quantitative Analysis of Photovoltaic Cluster Fluctuation Characteristics Considering Cloud Movement Time Lag

The power fluctuation of large-scale photovoltaic (PV) clusters is significantly affected by cloud movement. Aiming at the engineering reality that meteorological observation data are generally lacking for most power stations in wide-area PV clusters, as well as the problem that existing models overfit second-order high-frequency noise such as microscopic cloud deformation, this paper proposes a disturbance reconstruction and smoothing effect quantification method for PV clusters focusing on the first-order dominant meteorological component. First, a clear-sky model is introduced as a deterministic trend filter to extract the purely random disturbance sequence that induces grid-connection risks from the measured output power. Second, the dimensionality reduction modeling concept of “macro-advection dominance and microscopic deformation filtering” is established: the PV cluster is finely partitioned by fusing Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and geographical distance, and a cross-space inversion of the macro-cloud velocity vector is realized, driven by pure power data using the Time-Lagged Cross-Correlation (TLCC) algorithm, thus constructing a disturbance power generation model that accounts for the phase misalignment of power output. Independent verification based on measured data in Jilin Province shows that the 95% confidence interval of the power reconstructed only by the first-order advection characteristics can cover 90.2% of the measured fluctuations, and the reconstruction error of the fluctuation standard deviation—an indicator that determines the system reserve demand—is merely 5.9%. This verifies that the macro-cloud displacement is the absolute dominant factor governing the extreme fluctuations of PV clusters. Finally, a normalized Smoothing Factor (SF) characterizing the “reserve capacity release ratio” is constructed, and combined with its statistical indicators, it is used to quantitatively evaluate the smoothing benefits provided by different spatial layout schemes. Under data-constrained conditions, the method proposed in this paper verifies the engineering rationality that microscopic meteorological noise can be safely neglected at the macro-PV cluster scale, providing a reliable quantitative basis for the safe grid expansion and peak-shaving energy storage capacity sizing of high-proportion PV bases.