Multivariate discriminant analysis of African regional dairy production parameters

The importance of regional differentiation in dairy production systems lies in its ability to guide the design of appropriate development policies across Africa. This study aimed to distinguish the dairy production systems in the four major sub regions of the continent: North, West, East and Southern Africa using standardized data from the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN) Dairy Reports of 2023 and 2024. Fifteen (15) standardized variables related to production inputs, outputs and consumption patterns were assessed using stepwise discriminant analysis. The objective was to identify the parameters most capable of discriminating regional dairy characteristics. Of the 15 dairy production variables examined, only milk consumption per capita was statistically significant (Wilks’ Lambda = 0.397; p<0.001) to separate African sub regions. North Africa had highest correct classification success rate (80 %), followed by Southern Africa (60 %), while East Africa (40 %) and West Africa (16.7 %) regions displayed considerable overlap, indicating weak regional distinctiveness in their dairy systems. The findings reveal that production-driven variables such as milk yield and herd size are insufficient to clearly differentiate African regions. Instead, consumption-driven factors shaped by cultural values, purchasing power, and policy frameworks provided clearer distinctions. These results suggest that demand-side processes, particularly market access and dietary references, serve as stronger indicators of structural differences in African dairy systems than production-level metrics. Understanding these consumption-oriented dynamics is therefore essential for formulating targeted and effective dairy development strategies across the continent.