Research on the driving mechanisms of water resource utilization and the characteristics of economic decoupling: a case study of Guizhou Province

ABSTRACT This study examines the utilization of water resources across various sectors in Guizhou Province, China, from 2012 to 2022, with a focus on its decoupling from economic development. Using a multi-sector Kaya identity combined with an additive LMDI framework, the analysis covers agricultural, industrial, and urban water usage, while the Tapio elasticity model is employed to identify decoupling states. The reduction in water usage intensity is the primary constraint on demand. At the provincial level, agricultural water intensity contributes −5.35 to agricultural water use, while the output per unit of arable land contributes +6.51. In the industrial sector, reductions in water usage per unit of industrial output largely offset the increase from per capita GDP growth, contributing +2.46. For residential water usage, rising consumption levels have led to increased demand in both urban and rural areas, although this growth is partially counterbalanced by a decrease in per capita water usage. Overall, agriculture and industry predominantly exhibit strong or weak decoupling, while urban residential water usage showed expansionary negative decoupling from 2020 to 2022, indicating a rebound risk. This provides quantitative evidence for the implementation of water-saving measures in ecologically vulnerable areas, particularly targeting key sectors and groups.