Household-level climate vulnerability of buffalo-rearing communities in northern and western India: a composite index approach

Buffalo husbandry is central to the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers in northern and western India, providing both economic security and nutritional sustenance. Climate variability and extreme weather events, however, increasingly threaten buffalo productivity and household resilience, particularly among resource-poor farmers with limited access to veterinary and extension services. This study employed a composite index framework to assess the vulnerability of 720 buffalo-rearing households across six states Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, and Haryana by integrating indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The Buffalo rearing Households Vulnerability Index (B-HVI) was constructed using 41 indicators classified under these three dimensions, with Shannon’s entropy-based objective weighting. Results revealed substantial inter- and intra-state disparities. Haryana (B-HVI = 0.595) and Punjab (B-HVI = 0.488), characterized by high adaptive capacity (AC = 0.886 and AC = 0.745, respectively), structured extension support, and strong market linkages, exhibited the lowest vulnerability. Conversely, Bihar (B-HVI = 0.801) and Rajasthan (B-HVI = 0.799) showed the highest vulnerability due to low adaptive capacity (ACI = 0.208 and ACI = 0.618, respectively) and high sensitivity (SI = 0.789 and SI = 0.657). One-way ANOVA confirmed significant differences in mean B-HVI across states ( F = 30.08, p < 0.001), and Tukey’s post-hoc test delineated two distinct groups: Haryana and Punjab with relatively lower vulnerability, versus Bihar, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Uttar Pradesh with substantially higher vulnerability. Strengthening adaptive capacity through improved veterinary services, extension networks, and resource access is critical for reducing vulnerability in Bihar and Rajasthan, while consolidating resilience in Haryana and Punjab. The study highlights the urgency of state-specific, climate-resilient strategies to safeguard buffalo husbandry and rural livelihoods.