Adapting Mediterranean Agroforestry to Global Change: Trade-Offs and Lessons from the Montado

The Montado, a traditional Mediterranean agro-silvopastoral system, has historically sustained ecological and economic functions through the integration of trees, livestock, and crops. Today, its multifunctionality is increasingly threatened by climate variability, market volatility, and evolving policy frameworks. While previous research has examined Montado dynamics at landscape or plot scales, less attention has been paid to sustainability trajectories at the farm level, where management decisions are made. This study bridges that gap by assessing the sustainability dynamics of farms through a participatory, typology based, scenario approach grounded in a regional typology. We characterized three representative farm archetypes (forestry-focused, mixed agro-silvopastoral, and livestock-focused) and evaluated their trajectories under plausible future scenarios driven by climate, market, and policy pressures. Scenario outcomes were assessed using expert-based scoring (five-point scale), revealing score differences of up to two points across sustainability dimensions between farm archetypes and scenarios. Findings reveal marked trade-offs: Tree-focused farms maintain high environmental value but remain vulnerable to market and labor constraints, while livestock-specialized farms achieve higher economic output at the expense of ecological integrity. Mixed systems demonstrate greater resilience through diversification but face significant labor intensity challenges. We conclude that current “one-size-fits-all” policies generate contradictory incentives. Therefore, adaptive governance frameworks (e.g., results-based payment schemes) are essential to realign farm economics with ecological stewardship. Beyond the Montado, the approach provides insights relevant to other Mediterranean agroforestry systems facing similar sustainability challenges.