Divergent Terrain Responses to Arctic Warming: A Multi-Decadal Analysis in Kaffiøyra, Svalbard (1985–2023)

Arctic regions are experiencing accelerated environmental change, yet integrated assessments of terrain-scale responses remain limited. This study quantifies the spatial-temporal variability of glaciers, shorelines, and outwash plains in Kaffiøyra, Svalbard, Norway, over four decades (1985–2023) using cross-evaluated Landsat and Sentinel imagery. Our results reveal systematic retreat across all eight glaciers (R2 = 0.83–0.96), with tidewater glaciers experiencing substantially greater terminus area loss (62.8% and 72.1%) compared to land-terminating glaciers (34.5–69.0%). Coastal changes were highly variable: erosion (up to −3.2 m/yr) was most pronounced on shores exposed to southwesterly summer waves, while significant accretion (+13.0 m/yr) occurred near the tidewater glacier terminus. The insignificant outwash changes (−6.4% to +2.7%) despite substantial land-terminating glacier retreat indicate these systems respond to different controls. A moderate negative correlation between glacier terminus area and summer temperatures (r = −0.55 to −0.69) enabled a simple projection model. Diagnostic projections to 2020–2039 showed that both downscaled climate models and extrapolated local data overestimated retreat. However, extrapolated local data proved more accurate, with its projection gap averaging 11% for land-terminating and 46% for tidewater glaciers. The study provides crucial insights into Arctic terrain behaviors, highlighting complex and divergent responses. These findings emphasize the need for enhanced localized monitoring systems through ongoing high-resolution image surveys and planned modeling to understand accelerating polar environmental changes.