How should potential space resources markets be evaluated?

The development of a commercial space resources (SRU) industry could face a conundrum: Is it possible to finance and develop a SRU industry in the absence of an existing market? And conversely, is it possible to develop a SRU market prior to the development of a SRU industry? Various potential markets have been proposed for SRU over time. These include water sourced from the Moon or asteroids as feedstock for propellant or for the use of life support and radiation shielding, precious metals, principally platinum group metals sourced from asteroids for sale into terrestrial markets, and lunar sourced helium-3 for terrestrial nuclear fusion. However, there appears to be little critical evaluation of most of these potential markets to help determine viability. This paper reviews existing methodologies for evaluating markets and then proposes a revised methodology for evaluating potential SRU markets. The methodology takes a simplified approach using a framework that evaluates six factors: ‘product’, ‘customers & market’, ‘market growth’, ‘competition’, ‘pricing’, and ‘economics’. A practical demonstration of the framework is provided, through its use as a screening tool to evaluate the potential market for producing platinum from asteroids for return to terrestrial markets. The paper discusses how SRU markets could be segmented, in this case illustrating market segmentation by location, with potential markets proposed for three segments: the lunar surface, the terrestrial economy, and cislunar space. The paper also discusses other practical considerations important from a commercial / market perspective, in particular considerations around potential pricing and contract structure, drawing on pricing and contract practice in the terrestrial natural resources industries. Finally, the question of how SRU markets and customers could evolve is reviewed. Such markets could evolve from fixed price and term contracts with government entities, through public private partnerships with some flexibility around pricing and contract terms, to deep, liquid markets based perhaps on benchmark pricing as is currently the case in the terrestrial oil industry and to a lesser extent in markets for minerals such as iron ore. • Classic market evaluation frameworks can fail for first generation SRU. • Propose six pillar SRU screen: product, market, growth, competition, pricing, economics. • Pricing/contract structures will be key to SRU financing. • Market segmentation can focus product/market fit and financing pathways.