Reforestation scenarios shape global and regional temperature outcomes
Large-scale reforestation is a prominent proposed climate mitigation strategy, but its full temperature impact remains poorly understood. Here, we present a systematic comparison of temperature responses to three distinct reforestation potentials using a fully-coupled Earth System Model. We find that reforestation consistently provides net global cooling, ranging from -0.13<sup>∘</sup>C to -0.25<sup>∘</sup>C, due to carbon uptake partially offset by biogeophysical warming. Crucially, a comparable net global cooling can be achieved with substantially smaller (450 Mha less area) but strategically located reforestation. Reforestation locally cools the tropics but causes albedo-driven warming in higher latitudes, which is often amplified by non-local effects. The different reforestation patterns alone can induce a wide range of non-local effects, showing that planting locations shape the biogeophysical response through atmospheric and oceanic feedbacks. Our findings underscore the importance of climate-smart policies that focus on the geographical placement of reforestation, considering both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects to maximize cooling benefits.
Authors
- Steven De Hertog (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5733-4632)
- Felix Jäger (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6986-0701)
- Robert C. J. Wills (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7776-2076)
- Nora L. S. Fahrenbach
- Peter J. Lawrence
Institutions
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Ghent University (BE)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- NSF NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory (US)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Published
- 2026-03-11
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03331-3
- Primary Topic
- Seedling growth and survival studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- European Commission
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
- Belgian Federal Science Policy Office
- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich