Majority ethnonationalist ethnic riot and protest in 18 European countries: Variable levels of vote salience

This study argues that election years shape whether majority ethnonationalist (MEN) organizations in European countries engage in ethnic riot and protest, with effects differing by party status. For MEN non-parties, elections highlight a good (votes) that they do not pursue, reducing incentives for ethnic riots and protests during election years. In contrast, for MEN parties, elections make votes more salient, increasing their incentive to employ such tactics. Using original data on 281 MEN organizations across 18 European countries, two-way fixed effects estimations show that for MEN non-parties, an election year is associated with a 3.40 percentage point decrease in the predicted probability of ethnic riot. In contrast, for MEN parties, election years are positively associated with riots. No clear interactive association is found for protests. The findings advance existing evidence on majority ethnonationalism and far right politics in Europe with evidence of organizational mobilization differences.