US‐China trade war: Heterogeneous effects on the US consumer

Abstract This paper meticulously investigates how the US‐China trade war of 2018–19 affected nondurable consumption patterns for households across the United States. Using highly granular NielsenIQ barcode scanner data, we find that a 1 percentage point (pp) increase in a county's tariff exposure growth was associated with a decrease in nondurable consumption growth ranging between 0.593 pp and 2.163 pp. Notably, this relationship existed for employed households but not for those without employment, and it was not confined to those working in manufacturing and farming. Additionally, households with children had lower consumption growth as tariff exposure increased, and the relationship was more negative for larger households. Regionally, Midwest households were more negatively affected than those in the New England, Pacific, and South Atlantic states. The relationship between household consumption growth and tariff exposure growth was similar for both more‐ and less‐durable goods. These findings have significant implications for understanding the economic and social impacts of trade wars on household consumption patterns.