A predictive model to assess liability in earthquake disasters

Earthquakes cause severe losses and can raise complex questions about legal responsibility. To establish liability, legal approaches must demonstrate a causal link between the hazard and the resulting losses, while accounting for the decisive role that stakeholders decisions play in shaping that link. Here we present a conceptual model that predicts when liability of stakeholders may be triggered by linking consequence severity and stakeholder preparedness with decisions, resource allocation, and governing laws. The method adapts attribution science applied to extreme climate events, which examines how actions or inactions amplify impacts, to earthquake scenarios. By quantifying these relationships, the model offers a structured way to assess responsibility for losses and damages. Evaluating the influence of actions and inactions on consequences can inform litigation strategies and prevention policies. This evaluation may require broader legal obligations and policy adjustments, ultimately strengthening disaster risk reduction and providing a foundation for clearer frameworks to address loss and damage. Legal responsibility in natural disasters such as earthquakes can be quantified by linking consequence severity and stakeholder preparedness to decisions, resources, laws, and judicial precedents, using a liability prediction model