The Impact of Biodiversity Risk on US Agricultural Futures Markets

ABSTRACT This paper examines biodiversity risk (BOR) transmission to US agricultural futures markets. We find (1) all futures exhibit moderate‐to‐high biodiversity sensitivity, with coffee showing highest response through transparent price transmission mechanisms; (2) wavelet analysis reveals time‐frequency heterogeneity, where tropical crops maintain strong long‐term synchronization with BOR, intensified during COVID‐19; (3) frequency‐dependent asymmetric correlations emerge, with grains shifting from positive long‐cycle to negative short‐cycle correlations; (4) systemic spillover analysis indicates moderate interdependence, with soybeans as primary risk receiver and sugar as dominant transmitter, revealing differentiated transmission roles.