Multidimensional Analysis of Water Scarcity Risk and Its Transmission Network Across Chinese Provinces

Water scarcity is increasingly shaped by interactions between environmental constraints and interconnected economic systems, evolving from a localized supply–demand issue into a systemic risk embedded in economic networks. This study develops an integrated framework that conceptualizes water scarcity as a multidimensional risk by jointly accounting for water quantity, water quality, and environmental flow requirements, and embeds it within a multiregional input–output (MRIO) model to examine its formation and transmission across China. Results show that multidimensional constraints substantially amplify water scarcity risk and reshape its spatial distribution, extending risk beyond traditionally water-stressed regions to major agricultural provinces and key ecological function zones. Water-intensive, pollution-intensive, and basic industries form the core of risk accumulation, while virtual water linkages drive cross-regional risk propagation, with developed coastal provinces acting as major receivers. Network analysis identifies a small number of provinces—particularly Henan and Jiangsu—as critical hubs for risk transmission and systemic amplification. These findings highlight the need for integrated, multidimensional, and network-oriented water governance to enhance water system resilience.