Dynamic Evaluation of Tillage–Residue Management Systems and Maize Yield Prediction via Multi-Source Data Fusion and Mixed-Effects Modeling

Tillage–residue management is a controllable lever for improving maize yield and system resilience under climate variability. Here we propose a mixed-effects spatiotemporal learning framework (ME-LSTM) that integrates multi-source observations to enable robust yield prediction and management system evaluation across heterogeneous sites and years. First, we construct multi-year sliding-window inputs to represent legacy effects and cumulative influences of past management and environment. Second, a deep temporal encoder learns nonlinear dependencies from climate–soil–remote-sensing sequences to enhance interannual extrapolation. Third, a mixed-effects module explicitly separates management fixed effects from hierarchical random effects (e.g., source/study, site, year, and plot), absorbing source-specific biases and unobserved heterogeneity while improving interpretability. Finally, we parameterize management × climate/soil interactions to quantify system-specific sensitivities to environmental drivers and to support scenario-based comparison and recommendation of management options. Across multi-ecological maize datasets, ME-LSTM achieved an R2 of 0.8989 with an RMSE of 309.83 kg ha−1 on the test set. Ablation analyses show that removing remote-sensing features or ground-based temporal information substantially degrades performance, confirming the complementary value of multi-source fusion. Benchmarking against strong temporal baselines (LSTM, GRU, BiGRU, and Transformer) further demonstrates consistent accuracy gains of ME-LSTM, highlighting its suitability for small-sample, noisy, and hierarchically structured agricultural data. Overall, ME-LSTM provides an interpretable and scalable tool for climate-adaptive optimization of tillage–residue management and supports robust, actionable decision-making across diverse agro-ecological conditions.