Spatial and social determinants of the 1857 yellow fever epidemic in Lisbon

Despite the availability of a highly effective vaccine, yellow fever virus (YFV) is still endemic in 47 countries globally. Although disease due to YFV was first recorded in 1635, factors contributing to its spread remain poorly understood today. Using archival data from the nineteenth century, we digitalised and mapped the 1857 yellow fever (YF) epidemic in Lisbon, Portugal, to understand how transmission dynamics and spatial and environmental characteristics led to disparities in health outcomes between sociodemographic groups. We modelled the basic and effective reproduction number (R0 and Rt) and found that transmission dynamics throughout this pre-vaccination era epidemic are consistent with prevailing estimates (R0 ≃ 5). Transmission peaked at the end of October 1857 when YF was declared an epidemic, then declined until January 1858. YFV killed 4.2% of the population with infection attack rates ranging between 10.3-13.5%. Out of the 34 parishes in urban Lisbon, our hotspot analysis identified 15 statistically significant high-risk parishes near the coastline. Our maps, combined with a digital terrain model, show that the highest number of deaths occurred within connected streets confined in low-elevation built-up areas with homes. We discuss the potential role of wind and temperature in aiding mosquito dispersal across Lisbon, which were believed as the main historical environmental drivers of YF. More people died at home than in hospitals, and although working-aged men accounted for most fatalities, the highest probability of death was found among women working at home. Our study highlights the role of human-environment interactions in shaping a historical YF epidemic in a pre-vaccination urban setting and enhances our understanding of modern-day transmission dynamics.