Public opinion potential: rethinking public preferences and great power alignment in small and medium powers

Abstract What do the populations of small and medium powers think about their countries' relations with China and the United States, and how might their attitudes matter for foreign policy change? In this article, we propose a theory of public opinion potential (POP), conceptualized as the extent to which public preferences create conditions for change in foreign policy. Drawing on survey data from 9,451 respondents in 30 countries across Africa, the Americas, eastern Europe, south-east Asia and the Middle East, we analyse how people perceive their country's current and desired relations with the two world powers. We measure two dimensions of POP: the preference gap (the difference between perceived and desired relations) and the preference variation (the ‘spread’ of opinions). Together, these capture the structure of public opinion, which may enable or constrain foreign policy change. We develop a typology with four ideal types of POP and illustrate their implications through the cases of Haiti, Georgia, Brazil and Venezuela. The article contributes to understanding how the structure, rather than just the direction, of public opinion can shape the foreign policy of small and medium powers in the context of the evolving US–China competition.