Beyond the Floodplain: A Multi-Criteria Framework for Emergency Shelter Placement in Buncombe County, NC

The catastrophic impact of Hurricane Helene proved that standard FEMA flood maps are often inadequate for assessing risk in complex mountainous terrain. Using Buncombe County, North Carolina, as a case study, this research introduces a replicable framework for siting emergency shelters based on a multi-dimensional Flood Risk Index. By synthesizing HAND-derived inundation data, land-use intensity, and a machine learning-based Socio-Economic Vulnerability Index (SEVI), we mapped the intersection of hazard and vulnerability. Our analysis reveals a significant misalignment—a large portion of the current shelter network sits in high-risk zones, while safer upland corridors in the north and west remain underutilized. This study delivers a data-driven roadmap for disaster preparedness, ensuring that future shelter placement is not only safe from terrain-driven floods but also strategically and equitably located.