A Cluster- and Temperature-Aware Auto-Ensemble Model for Airport Cooling Load Forecasting

Accurate cooling load forecasting supports energy-efficient operation in large public buildings such as airports. Cooling load time series are often nonlinear and temporally dependent, with frequent operating condition changes and pronounced thermal inertia, which limits the reliability of single-model forecasting. This study proposes a cluster- and temperature-aware auto-ensemble model (CATS-Ens) for short- and long-term cooling load prediction. CATS-Ens learns condition-dependent model contributions within temperature-based operating intervals and distinct load regimes, enabling collaborative prediction across complementary experts and avoiding reliance on a single globally optimal predictor. The proposed model is evaluated on a real-world hourly cooling load dataset collected from an airport terminal. Results show that CATS-Ens achieves consistently better performance than representative baselines under multiple metrics, including MAE, RMSE, MAPE, sMAPE, and R2. Compared with the best individual baseline, CATS-Ens reduces MAE by 8.5%, RMSE by 8.4%, MAPE by 12.6%, and sMAPE by 7.1%, with an R2 of 0.967. The model maintains stable accuracy under varying operating conditions and alleviates false-positive predictions during zero-load and low-load periods, demonstrating its practical value for cooling load forecasting in complex building energy systems.