Probabilistic Estimation of CCS Costs Using Monte Carlo Simulation

This study estimates unit costs (USD/tCO 2 ) across the carbon capture, transport, and storage (CCS) value chain using probabilistic distributions.Cost data from the literature and technical reports are systematically compiled by capture (refinery, cement, iron, hydrogen, and natural gas), transport (shipping and pipelines), and storage (depleted oil and gas reservoirs and saline aquifers) categories.Mixed interval and point-valued data are treated using a symbolic data analysis approach to generate virtual samples, and candidate distributions are fitted using maximum likelihood estimation.Monte Carlo simulations are then performed to derive mean and percentile cost estimates.When applied to a case in which CO 2 captured from natural gas processing is transported via a 500 km-long pipeline and stored in a depleted gas reservoir, the total CCS cost is estimated at a mean of 94.78 USD/tCO 2 (P10 69.66, P50 84.33, P90 129.81 USD/tCO 2 ).This study provides probabilistic cost benchmarks to support investment decision-making in early-stage CCS planning.