Regional Sustainability Assessment Under Risk and Uncertainty: A Water–Energy–Food Based Framework

ABSTRACT Regional sustainability assessment requires integrated structures that can examine the interactions between Water–Energy–Food (WEF) systems, socio‐economic risk conditions, and performance outcomes under uncertainty. This study proposes a multidimensional framework that combines a suitability index, composite sustainability indicators, multidimensional risk and uncertainty analysis, strategy resilience assessment, and simulation‐based uncertainty within a methodological structure aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). The framework was applied to 26 NUTS‐2 regions of Türkiye and the effects of regional capacity and risk on resilience under uncertainty were analyzed. The findings indicate that regions with high capacity experience notable performance losses under increasing uncertainty, reflected in a reduced probability of achieving predefined performance improvement thresholds, while governance and policy oriented strategies generate more stable outcomes in more fragile regional contexts. Smart WEF Integration and Circular Industrial Transition exhibit stronger alignment with regions characterized by infrastructural conditions, whereas strategies demonstrate consistent performance across transitional areas. Overall, the results highlight the need for strategy selection to incorporate region‐specific risk sensitivity and uncertainty‐driven performance volatility, and provide a strategy allocation for each NUTS‐2 region that reflects differences in regional capacity and resilience under uncertainty.