The Long‐Run Impact of Agricultural Risk on Cultural Divergence

ABSTRACT The substantial divergence of cultural norms across societies has significantly influenced their comparative development. In this paper, we propose an agricultural risk theory, arguing that cultural divergence along the collectivism–individualism dimension is shaped by historical agricultural production risk stemming from natural disasters. In regions with higher agricultural risk in the past, farmers needed to cooperate more intensively for survival, fostering a collectivistic culture that persists today. Using a nationally representative survey in China, we show that people from regions with higher historical agricultural risk exhibit higher levels of collectivism today. We also show that historical agricultural risk is the strongest predictor of contemporary collectivism compared to those proposed by the rice, modernisation, and pathogen prevalence theories. Furthermore, we demonstrate that provinces with higher historical agricultural risk exhibit higher levels of collectivistic behaviour, including farmers' cooperatives, and lower levels of individualistic behaviour, including innovation and divorce. This suggests that historical agricultural risk contributes to contemporary divergences in culture and development.