Climate change enhances the propagation from meteorological to lake drought

Lake droughts are intensifying globally, threatening aquatic biodiversity, ecosystem services, and water security. Yet the mechanisms linking meteorological and lake droughts remain unclear, limiting progress in early warning and adaptive water management. Here, we quantified the propagation time and probability from meteorological to lake droughts for 153,643 lakes worldwide from 1985 to 2018, and further investigated their spatiotemporal patterns and underlying drivers. The results reveal that the propagation from meteorological to lake droughts exhibited strong spatial heterogeneity, influenced by lake morphology, climatic background, and land-surface conditions. During the study period, 14% of lakes experienced faster drought propagation, while 26% exhibited a higher probability of propagation, particularly in arid regions. In North America, lakes experienced both accelerated propagation and increased propagation probability, primarily driven by rising temperatures and vapor pressure deficit. These findings reveal the accelerating exposure of global lakes to drought under climate change, highlighting the need for robust prediction systems and adaptive water management strategies. • Quantified meteorological drought spread to 153,643 lakes (1985–2018). • Drought propagation to lakes has intensified, especially in arid regions. • Tree vegetation slows drought spread and reduces its likelihood. • Rising temperatures and vapor pressure deficit accelerate drought spread in North America. • Findings guide adaptive lake management and global drought mitigation efforts.