A pilot framework for applying earned value analysis to contingency governance in municipal infrastructure projects

Municipalities often discover project overruns too late for effective intervention. This affects the delivery of public works and complicates the financial planning needed for sustainable urban development. Traditional project controls are difficult to apply in this context because they rely on granular cost and schedule data that standard fixed price municipal contracts do not provide. This paper presents a pilot implementation framework that applies Earned Value Analysis (EVA) using data that municipal owners already possess, including contract values, invoices, and certified progress reports. The framework is demonstrated on two municipal infrastructure design projects, treated as case studies rather than a statistical sample. In Project A, an anomalously high Cost Performance Index (CPI) reflected delayed billing relative to certified progress and preceded a major change order. In Project B, a declining Schedule Performance Index (SPI) captured severe delays associated with external regulatory stakeholders and quantified schedule inefficiency as work progressed at less than the planned rate. The study is presented as a proof of concept that shows how contingency can be reframed from a static financial reserve into a structured governance mechanism that links EVA thresholds to predefined management actions. While preliminary and limited to two projects in a single municipality, the framework indicates potential for replication in similar municipal contexts and offers a practical pathway toward more accountable infrastructure delivery.