Analysis of spatiotemporal land use land cover change dynamics in Wolaita Zone, Ethiopia

The land is a vital natural resource on which life and development activities rely. Changes in LULC are often the result of anthropogenic activities. LULC change detection helps understand the magnitude of human impact on the environment and, in turn, identify sustainable management options. The present study uses GIS and remote sensing techniques as practical tools to monitor spatiotemporal patterns of LULC change in Wolaita Zone, Ethiopia, between 1993 and 2023. The Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS C2 L2, Landsat 7 ETM+ C2 L2, and Landsat 5 TM C2 L2 satellite images were used for mapping. Sufficient training samples were taken by integrating several band combinations, and a signature file was generated. The maximum likelihood algorithm was employed in supervised classification, and five LULC classes were generated. The accuracy of each classified map was appraised using accuracy assessment data and high-resolution Google Earth Pro and validated employing a confusion matrix and Kappa statistics. The Kappa values for the LULC maps of 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023 were 87.43%, 90.81%, 92.26%, and 94.67%, respectively. The finding revealed a significant change in LULC classes within the past three decades. Between 1993 and 2023, the regions occupied by agricultural and bare land decreased by 539.97 km² (− 33.32%) and 364.78 km² (− 34.21%), with annual rate changes of − 18 km²/year (− 1.11%) and − 12.16 km²/year (-1.14%), respectively. Conversely, a significant increment has been seen in areas of vegetation cover about 736.73 km2 (45.14%), built-up areas by 102.64 km2 (63.48%), and water bodies by 65.38 km2 (229.66%) with an annual rate of change of 24.56 km2/year (1.5%), 3.4 km2/year (2.12%), and 2.18 km2/year (7.66%), respectively. The LULC transition matrix indicated that agricultural land experienced the largest decline, primarily converting to vegetation cover (682.11 km²). Despite decade-level fluctuations in the average temperature, the 30-year change indicates a net increase of 1.49 °C, primarily due to urban expansion, suggesting a general warming trend. The findings may offer valuable insights to experts, environmentalists, decision-makers, land managers, and planners for sustainable land administration, monitoring changes, and fostering a balanced and healthy environment for future generations.